The CIA has concluded that the COVID-19 virus likely originated from a laboratory, though it expresses a lack of confidence in this assessment, according to a report released on Saturday. This assessment, which points to China, highlights that while the lab-origin theory is considered more plausible than a natural one, the agency’s certainty is low due to insufficient, contradictory, or inconclusive evidence.
This conclusion was not derived from any new intelligence. Instead, it came at the request of the Biden administration, with input from former CIA Director William Burns. The report was declassified and made public on Saturday by John Ratcliffe, the newly appointed CIA director under President Donald Trump.
Although the CIA leans towards a lab-related origin, the agency maintains that both the possibility of a research-related origin and a natural one are still credible. The report emphasizes that a final resolution of the debate is unlikely, largely because of China’s refusal to cooperate fully with investigations into the matter.
The CIA’s evaluation was based on existing intelligence about the virus’s spread, its scientific characteristics, and the conditions within China’s virology laboratories. It was spurred by ongoing pressure from lawmakers, seeking clarity on the virus’s origins—an issue that has profound domestic and global consequences as the world continues to deal with the pandemic’s effects.
Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas and chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, expressed approval of the CIA’s stance on the lab-leak theory. He also commended Ratcliffe for declassifying the report. Cotton emphasized the need for accountability from China, urging that the country be held responsible for the global impact of the virus.
In response, Chinese officials have dismissed these claims, calling the speculation about the virus’s origins politically motivated and unscientific. A spokesperson from China’s U.S. embassy stated that the CIA’s report lacks credibility and reiterated China’s stance against the politicization of the issue.
Although the exact origins of the virus remain uncertain, scientists generally believe that it likely began in bats, as with other coronaviruses, and then passed to other animals such as raccoon dogs, civet cats, or bamboo rats. These animals are thought to have transmitted the virus to humans, particularly those involved in handling or selling them at a market in Wuhan, where the first cases of COVID-19 emerged in late November 2019.
